We have learnt from experts and from experience that goals, especially big or complex ones, need to have not just plans but good plans for them to be realized. These good plans necessarily embody good endgame plans. Before hatching the good plan, the goal must have been clearly defined. Time and time again we have seen well-educated and mature(in age at least) people in our society embark on complex, risky ventures with mystery endgame plans. It did not start today.
The late Maj Isaac Adaka Boro embarked on what is popularly referred to as the 12-Day Revolution. We are told that his goal was to carve out the Niger Delta as a separate republic. He declared The Niger Delta Republic on Feb 23, 1966. He was so aggrieved by what he perceived to be injustices against the Niger Deltans that he did not bother about an endgame plan. The Federal Might descended on him and his tiny revolution, neutralized it within 12 days. Boro and his comrades were arrested, tried and sentenced to death. He knew the federal might was there and would not hesitate to come after him. How he hoped to take care of that remains a mystery. A mystery endgame plan for a lofty idea.
Omoyele Sowore, the erstwhile presidential candidate during the 2019 elections embarked on what he called ‘Revolution Now’ protest/coup or whatever. We were told his goal was to bring down the Buhari regime. Going by his observable actions during his revolution, how he intended to achieve this goal remained unclear. Of course, the government descended on him and placed him on trial. Going by his level of exposure, he must have known that his Revolution Now would be short-lived and that he would be tried and possibly jailed. We were not told how he planned to counter this. A mystery endgame plan, unless he only aimed at improving his popularity in preparation for another shot at the presidential ticket.
When Nnamdi Kanu first came to limelight I heaved a sigh of relief that finally someone has put together all the complaints, injustices meted out to Ndigbo because I did not believe he could be that loud without first doing so. I rushed out to IPOB website but could not find anything of the sort. In fact, the site was virtually empty. I asked around for flyers, pamphlets, booklets, books published by IPOB.
I checked many bookshops, asked many people but could find none. There is no doubt that making isolated statements of claims of marginalization, injustices against Ndigbo would not go far no matter how obvious they appear. Well-articulated argument fortified with facts and figures will surely do much better. Aside from Kanu’s vision of Biafra being vague, his activities do not suggest that he was consulting wise men and women who would have guided him on what would work at what time and what would not.
Fiery statements may attract already angry youths to him in their thousands if not millions, they are not likely to ensure achievement of his goal. His overall strategy is unclear and has never looked like what would deliver the goods. Lately we have been reading claims of poor management of IPOB affairs which created disaffection among his immediate lieutenants. Lack of effective deputy has left the group in disarray with Kanu’s rearrest as reported by BBC. Now trial, and possible jail term stare him in the face.
Did he not know that this would eventually come his way? Did he truly believe he would eventually actualize his Biafra dream through his method? Or was he just having fun? If he had calmed down, done more detailed studies of the situation, consulted people that matter in the land, his chances of actualizing Biafra, in my opinion, would have been much brighter.
Whether Igbos would be better off outside Nigeria than within Nigeria is an argument for another day. Now with his rearrest, and management style within IPOB, this may be the beginning of the end for IPOB. Another venture with mystery endgame plan. The entire scenario created by Nnamdi Kanu’s activities will make political successes by Ndigbo in Nigeria much more difficult. If Igbo presidency had looked likely in 2023, the impression created has the capacity to move it forward by 4 or 8 more years. Politics is about building bridges, collaboration, and winning votes. This is more difficult when trust level is low.
Sunday Igboho is still new on the popularity scene but has grown rapidly in his capacity to be associated with violence. His home has been raided, arms & ammunition discovered and himself declared wanted by the authorities of the day. Could he claim not to have seen this coming? Did he sincerely believe that he would achieve Oduduwa Republic by his kind of one man show? The leaders of the west have made it clear they are not for secession but restructuring which would give them a good measure of independence. His popularity may have peaked. Another mystery endgame plan!
Attraction of the man in the street to such ventures is understandable. How such doomed-to-fail ventures command the admiration of highly educated people only brings to the fore the ease with which we can sail away on the crest of our emotions.
Let no one deceive himself about Ojukwu’s ability to wage war for 30 months. The circumstances were different and battle lines drew themselves even though the war was not unavoidable. We have all accepted to play this politics willingly. Why don’t we make the best of it? Pockets of violence here and there will not make the desired change. The federal might will always be there to neutralize it. All the attempts mentioned above and many not mentioned here failed to achieve their declared goals while bringing pain to many innocent families.
Do we continue making similar attempts? The gravity of injustice done any group cannot by itself make a change so do not let your anger push you into unplanned or badly planned reactions. It is only a good plan and capacity to see it through that can. The later Niger Delta struggles succeeded to the extent it did because theirs was of a different kind: environmental devastation, pushing them to the wall and not mere marginalization, which was very evident and visible to the whole world.
The government had no option than to soft-pedal, though not before unleashing unforgettable terror on parts of the region(in particular Ogoni by Abacha & Odi by Obasanjo). Even the ENDSARS# protest which was planned to be peaceful and succeeded to a good extent(in being peaceful & achievement of results) eventually proved to be totally lacking in endgame plan and of course government quickly got back to the driving seat and the rest is history.
The way to go is playing politics, and doing so with sustained commitment. The southern governors have met twice in recent times. That is politics. It may not be the best of politics, but it is politics. It may not appear as dramatic as those of the violence-loving protesters, if sustained, may yield the desired results while not risking loss of lives and property. Do not forget that these southern states have representatives in the NASS who have never satisfied those they represent. Take for instance, apart from a lone voice from Abia state, it is hard to find any strong voice from the SE in the NASS projecting the interests of the region.
That is not how to get the goodies. Look at the recently passed PIB, we are already hearing that southern law makers ‘dozed’ off during part of the consideration. If true, very bad politics. In fact, it is the failure of the southern lawmakers to sufficiently protect the interests of their regions that have forced their governors to seek change through other means.
If I were one of the governors, I would have pushed for compelling their lawmakers to do the needful. When pushed to the wall, suicide missions(which is what the cases above are) may be the only option, otherwise, good planning and execution should be the way to go.
